Published in the Nikkei Asian Review 2/5/2015
“Special relationships” have their ups and downs in international politics as in the personal sphere. After a long period of partnership, one couple may decide on a trial separation, while another may confirm mutual commitment by renewing their vows. This appears to be what is now happening in Anglo-American and US-Japan relations respectively.
The UK’s upcoming general election is widely expected to usher in a period of weak government that empowers minority parties and leads to further arguments about Scottish independence, a British “exit” from the EU and the desirability of Britain’s costly nuclear deterrent. All this is anathema to the United States, which is already displeased with Prime Minister David Cameron’s decision to sign up to the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and reluctance to get involved in the Ukraine crisis.
In stark contrast Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who continues to dominate the domestic political scene, has just returned from a highly successful visit to the United States, where he had the rare honour of addressing a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives. Abe’s speech was perfectly pitched and is said to have brought tears to the eyes of some of the attendees. He talked of “deep repentance in his heart” for the ugly events of the Second World War – a choice of words that went beyond previous apologies and has strong associations with the American bible-bashing tradition originated by eighteenth century theologian Jonathan Edwards.
Abe also quoted a more recent American wordsmith – Carole King and her 1970s hit “You’ve Got A Friend.” Apparently a senior female Democrat in the audience went to the trouble of informing the song-writer herself immediately afterwards.
It was just twelve years ago that then-Prime Minister Tony Blair received a standing ovation from a joint session of the US Congress and the US and Britain were partners in the invasion of Iraq. It was just six years ago that Yukio Hatoyama, leader of the Democratic Party of Japan, won an electoral landslide on a platform that included de-emphasizing links with the US and shifting to a more Asia-focused foreign policy. Both ex-leaders are now seriously unpopular in their own countries and their successors have no wish to follow in their footsteps. Will the US-Japan love-in and the US-UK froideur prove similarly transient? Probably not. Political leaders come and go, but there is a long-term congruence of interest between the US and Japan which no longer exists between the US and the UK.
BE HONEST, NOT SPECIAL
The phrase “special relationship”, as a description of US-UK relations was coined by Winston Churchill in 1944. Half-American himself, Churchill was a romantic imperialist who believed in the common destiny of the “English-speaking peoples”, including Canada, Australia and other commonwealth countries. In the three great conflicts of the twentieth century – World War 1, World War 2 and the Cold War – the US and Britain were allies, but in earlier times the relationship was much edgier. In the British-American war of 1812-15, British forces torched Washington D.C. and tried to set up an independent nation of Native American tribes; for their part, American troops invaded Canada.
In today’s world, Britain has many diverse interests which are no more aligned with the US than with any other developed country. As host to the world’s top international financial centre, it could hardly shun China’s AIIB project. Furthermore Britain will remain a semi-detached part of the EU, even if it continues as a full member. If the Americans want to maximize their leverage in Europe, they need to get pally with the Germans instead.
The US-Japan relationship is different. There is a new overwhelming interest the two countries have in common, which is the need to counter-balance a powerful China eager to assert itself economically, financially and militarily. The US cannot realize its Asian strategy without the active participation of a prosperous and confident Japan. The stakes are much higher for Japan itself, which cannot “pivot” to any other geography but is fated to play out its rivalry with China in perpetuity.
For that reason it is vital for Japan to deliver on the promises that Abe made in Washington on security and trade. Domestic public opinion is evenly balanced on many of these questions and it will require plenty of political skill and courage to move things forward. On issues like relocation of bases in Okinawa, the pushback is going to be fierce – but if Abe can’t get it done, nobody can.
Americans and Japanese seem to see eye-to-eye on number of subjects. According to a recent survey by Pew Research, twice as many Americans trust Japan as trust China and more than ten times as many Japanese trust the United States as do China. Even on the legacy of World War 2, views are similar – with 76% of Japanese and 66% of Americans believing that Japan does not need to apologize any further for its actions.
Despite the congruence of attitudes and interests, Carole King’s line “Winter, spring, summer, or fall / All you got to do is call” is not a good guide for policy. Even in the post-WW2 heyday of the “special relationship” Britain steered clear of the Vietnam War and there were various foreign policy bust-ups –such as the Suez crisis of 1956 and the 1983 US invasion of Grenada, a member of the British Commonwealth – in which the clash of interests was laid bare. A healthy, adult relationship is more durable than a “special” one. And for that you need honesty from both sides.